PH Logs New COVID-19 Cases Below Forecast Days After Elections, Will Surge Happen Next Week?

Days after the May 9 national elections, the new reported COVID-19 cases in the country for May 11 and 12 seem to fall below the forecast of the OCTA Research Group.

Only 109 new cases of COVID-19 were tallied on May 11, two days after the national elections. This brings the total tally of COVID-19 cases in the country to 3,687,428, according to OCTA Research Group.

Moreover, OCTA Research Group fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet that the number of recorded COVID-19 cases is lower than the projected number of new COVID-19 cases for the day.

“May 11, 2022. DOH reported 109 new cases (near forecasted 120), 0 deaths, and 418 recoveries. 3328 active cases, a 1.2% nationwide positivity rate. 52 cases in NCR. Projecting 210 cases May 12,” the tweet from David read.

The 139 new COVID-19 cases reported for May 12 by OCTA Research Group were also lower than the projected 210, according to another tweet by David.

“May 12, 2022. DOH reported 139 new cases (below the forecasted 210), 13 deaths, and 418 recoveries. 3177 active cases, 1.2% nationwide positivity rate. 48 cases in NCR.”

David added that the OCTA Research Group is projecting 300 new COVID-19 cases for May 13.

“Projecting 200 cases tomorrow,” David’s tweet read.

The recently concluded elections coupled with new recorded COVID-19 cases being lower than the projected number begs the question: Will a surge happen in the following days or weeks?

According to Vaccine Experts Panel member Dr. Rontgene Solante, an uptick in the number of new COVID-19 cases in the country is expected in the coming weeks after the national election as the said that there is a possibility for a surge after the recent super spreader event in a televised public briefing Wednesday.

Moreover, Solante said that there were already super spreader events before the elections where the minimum health protocols set by the government were violated, such as political rallies and sorties.

“Meron tayo mga nakitaan ngayon na ibang mga pasyente na merong mga mild symptoms lang naman, and they are positive, so, ibig sabihin dun nakuha ‘yan, either sa presinto or before siya bumoto at bumoto siya nakuha niya (We’ve seen other patients with mild symptoms, and they are positive, so that means either they got it at the precinct before he voted, or when he voted) so, those are the possible scenarios,” Solante said during the televised public briefing.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said earlier that there were around 31 voters nationwide who were sent home on May 9, the election day, to self-isolate due to being seen with COVID-19-related symptoms.

With the incubation period of COVID-19 averaging three to five days, Solante said that the new cases will reflect next week. (GFB)