Philippine Inflation Eases to 6.8% Amid Easing Oil Shocks

Philippine inflation eased to 6.8 percent in May 2026, the Philippine Statistics Authority said Friday, marking a slowdown from April’s three-year high of 7.2 percent. The May figure undershot the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ forecast range of 7.1 to 7.9 percent, offering a modest reprieve from the sharp price increases that followed a spike in global oil prices earlier this year.

The deceleration reflected softer month-on-month gains in key categories that had driven April’s surge, including food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, and housing and utilities. Transport inflation, which rocketed in April amid steep rises in gasoline and diesel prices tied to disruptions from the Middle East conflict, moderated in May as international oil markets showed signs of easing and local pump prices stabilized.

National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa cautioned that while the monthly slowdown was welcome, inflation remains well above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2.0–4.0 percent target. The five-month average for January–May stands at 4.5 percent, and year-on-year inflation is still markedly higher than the 1.3 percent recorded in May 2025, underscoring the lingering impact of supply shocks and currency weakness.

The central bank earlier raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.3 percent and signaled readiness to adjust monetary policy if upside risks persist. Policymakers continue to monitor imported price pressures driven by the peso’s depreciation and global commodity volatility, factors that could keep inflation elevated through the rest of the year.