Tentative US-Iran Ceasefire Could Reopen Hormuz

A tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz has raised hopes for lower oil prices and a steadier peso, but experts warn relief will be gradual.

The proposed 60-day deal would allow toll-free passage, require Iran to clear mines, and allow Tehran to sell oil freely in exchange for U.S. sanctions waivers and the lifting of port blockades. Iranian officials say key points remain unresolved and no final agreement has been signed.

“If the Strait opens and stays open, the Philippines could see a gradual easing of oil prices and a calmer peso,” said a senior Manila-based economist. “But past truces have fallen apart, and mine clearance alone may take months.”

Near-term impacts to watch
Pump prices in the Philippines could ease if global crude costs decline, though any relief will not be immediate. A credible ceasefire would also help reduce risk premiums and support peso stability, while lower fuel costs over time could slow inflationary pressures. Shipping and trade may benefit as well, with insurance and freight rates likely to fall once the Strait of Hormuz is secure.

Why caution is warranted
Past truces between the U.S. and Iran collapsed within weeks, underscoring the fragility of such agreements. Even if a deal is signed, energy flows may take three to six months to normalize, and mine clearance could extend that timeline further. In the meantime, volatility is expected, as oil prices and the peso often react sharply to headlines and can quickly reverse if details disappoint.