PAGASA Says El Niño Expect to Intensify Q4 Until May 2016

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services, Administration (PAGASA) has forecast the El Niño phenomenon to intensify in the last quarter of the year up to May 2016.

According to the latest climate outlook of PAGASA, the El Niño event, which reduces the amount of rainfall, is projected to intensify in the last quarter of 2015 and may even extend up to May next year.

Anthony Lucero, senior weather specialist of PAGASA’s Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, said this phenomenon could be stronger and worst than what the country experienced in 1997 to 1998.

This month, he said about six provinces namely: Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte and Bohol are expected to be under drought condition.

PAGASA described drought as three consecutive months of way below normal or five consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition.

By the end of the year, Lucero said at least 46 provinces including Bulacan and Metro Manila are projected to experience drought.

The long dry spell due to El Niño will continue until February 2016 to bring drought in Bulacan, Metro Manila, and 63 other cities and provinces.

“Habang lumalakas ang El Nino, inaasahan din na maraming bahagi ng bansa ang maaapektuhan nito at makakaranas ng less rainfall,” he noted.

Meanwhile, 19 provinces are likely to experience dry spell for the month which include:

In Luzon — the provinces of Isabela and Sorosogon.

In Visayas — the provinces of Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Western Samar and Southern Leyte.

In Mindanao — the provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Compostella Valley, South Cotabato, Sarangi, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Basilan, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.

The provinces of Pangasinan, Tarlac, Cavite, Capiz, Cebu, and North Cotabato will be under dry condition for this month.

Earlier, Secretary Mario G. Montejo of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) assured the public that that the government is preparing for this weather phenomenon.

Food security and health are priority concerns in the government’s preparation for the 2015 El Niño, he noted. (PNA) LGI/CLTC