News
The Daily Scan – July 24, 2026 (Fri)
Filipinos Are Buying Fewer Cars but More EVs
Vehicle sales fell 8% in June, but EV sales more than doubled. Small businesses are bracing for the NCR wage hike, the budget deficit widened, and the government just put its first real numbers on Pax Silica, up to $70 billion at full build-out.
| Vehicle Sales (Jun) | EV Sales (Jun) | June Budget Gap | Pax Silica Full Build |
| -8% YoY | More than 2x YoY | ₱264.3B, +9.39% | $40B to $70B |
THE SNAPSHOT
Vehicle sales dropped 8% in June and are down 11.4% for the first half, but EV sales more than doubled in the same month, a split that says Filipino households are cutting back on big spending while a specific segment keeps growing anyway. Small businesses are bracing for Metro Manila’s wage hike that lands today, and the national budget deficit widened again, both signs the near-term is going to feel tight. But two big-number stories point the other way: Oxford Economics says the Philippines could actually gain if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and the government just put its first formal price tag on Pax Silica, up to $70 billion at full build-out.
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● PH auto sales slump as EVs surge
WHAT HAPPENED
Vehicle sales fell 8% in June to 37,231 units, dragging first-half sales down 11.4% to 204,557 units, according to CAMPI and TMA data cited by BusinessWorld. EV sales, however, more than doubled to 6,995 units, with plug-in hybrids surging over 3,900% year on year.
UNCERTAIN
Analysts differ on how quickly the market recovers, citing both improving EV supply and continued caution from high borrowing costs.
WHY IT MATTERS
A PIDS research fellow told BusinessWorld the annual decline reflects elevated borrowing costs and living expenses making households more selective on big-ticket purchases, even as month-on-month sales rose 11% on midyear promotions.
RISK
Big-ticket retail and financing businesses face continued caution from cost-conscious consumers through the second half.
OPPORTUNITY
EV and hybrid-adjacent businesses, financing, charging infrastructure, and parts are riding a segment growing against the broader trend.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell big-ticket goods, lean into financing and promotional offers the way automakers did in June. If you’re in the EV supply chain, this is your growth window while the rest of the category stays soft.
● NCR wage hike squeezes small firms
WHAT HAPPENED
Metro Manila’s daily minimum wage rises by P60 to P755 today under Wage Order No. 27. MSME owners like Kamuning Bakery’s Wilson Lee Flores told BusinessWorld they plan to absorb the cost through efficiency gains rather than price hikes or layoffs.
UNCERTAIN
None flagged. Both sides of the debate, business groups and labor economists, spoke on record with specific figures.
WHY IT MATTERS
IBON Foundation’s Jose Enrique Africa told BusinessWorld that labor costs average just 11% of total business costs nationwide, and the full P85 wage increase amounts to roughly 5.3% of average MSME profits, smaller than headlines suggest, but still real on thin margins.
RISK
Thin-margin MSMEs absorb the cost through lower profits rather than price hikes, squeezing owners more than customers.
OPPORTUNITY
Barangay Micro Business Enterprises can apply for exemption under the BMBE Act, a relief valve many entrepreneurs don’t know exists.
NEXT MOVE
Check your BMBE eligibility before assuming you have to absorb the full increase, and look at what Kamuning Bakery did: cross-train staff and cut waste before touching your prices.
● PH budget gap widens, still below target
WHAT HAPPENED
The national government’s budget deficit rose to P264.3 billion in June, up 9.39% from a year earlier, as spending grew 5.51% while revenue rose only 2.46%, Bureau of the Treasury data cited by The Manila Times showed. The first-half deficit stayed slightly below the government’s programmed ceiling.
UNCERTAIN
The Treasury did not say whether the pattern of non-tax revenue swings seen in May and June will continue into the second half.
WHY IT MATTERS
Interest payments alone rose 8.73% in June, pushing first-half debt servicing costs to P483.7 billion, up 16.6% year on year, a growing claim on the budget that leaves less room for other spending if revenue growth doesn’t keep pace.
RISK
Rising debt servicing costs could crowd out other government spending if the fiscal gap keeps widening faster than revenue.
NEXT MOVE
Businesses that depend on government spending, construction, infrastructure, and procurement should watch whether the second-half deficit stays on program. A miss here usually means slower disbursements down the line.
● Hormuz reopening may ease PH risks
WHAT HAPPENED
Oxford Economics said the Philippines is among the economies hardest hit by the Middle East conflict, but could emerge as a beneficiary once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The think tank estimates a durable reopening could improve the country’s sovereign risk profile by the equivalent of 0.7 credit-rating notch, per Manila Bulletin.
UNCERTAIN
No timeline given for when or whether the strait reopens. The report’s downside scenario has it staying largely closed through the end of 2027.
WHY IT MATTERS
A better sovereign risk profile can lower the government’s own borrowing costs and improve investor sentiment broadly, a real tailwind if it happens, but it depends entirely on a war the Philippines has no control over.
OPPORTUNITY
A reopening would ease energy import costs, restore trade flows, and lower the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into PH assets.
NEXT MOVE
Don’t plan around this upside happening on any particular timeline. Treat it as a reason to hold steady through the current cost pressure rather than a signal to loosen your budget now.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● MariBank PH gets BSP digital banking license
WHAT HAPPENED
MariBank Philippines, the local arm of Sea Limited’s Singapore-based digital bank, became the country’s seventh licensed digital bank after BSP upgraded its rural bank license, The Manila Times reported. The bank officially began operating under the new classification on July 18.
UNCERTAIN
No word yet on how MariBank’s product lineup will change now that it can operate without a physical branch requirement.
WHY IT MATTERS
Sea Limited also owns Shopee, so a fully licensed digital bank under the same corporate umbrella as the country’s largest e-commerce platform is a notable piece of financial infrastructure for merchants already selling on that platform.
OPPORTUNITY
Shopee sellers may see more integrated banking, credit, or payout products from a Sea-owned bank down the line.
NEXT MOVE
If you sell on Shopee, keep an eye on MariBank’s product roadmap. E-commerce platforms with in-house banking tend to bundle credit and working capital products for sellers eventually.
● Peso stays at record low amid Mideast war
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso held near its record low against the dollar Thursday as the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, extending the pressure flagged earlier this week, BusinessWorld reported.
UNCERTAIN
No new de-escalation signals reported as of Thursday’s close.
WHY IT MATTERS
A currency stuck at its floor for multiple sessions in a row is a different signal than a one-day dip. It suggests the market isn’t expecting quick relief, which matters for anyone planning costs around a stronger peso later this year.
RISK
Businesses waiting for peso strength to ease import costs should not assume it arrives on any near-term timeline.
NEXT MOVE
If your 2026 plan assumed the peso would recover by year-end, revisit that assumption this week specifically. The war, not routine market swings, is driving this one.
● BCDA eyes up to $70B Pax Silica investment
WHAT HAPPENED
BCDA unveiled its first detailed economic projections for the Pax Silica tech hub in New Clark City, estimating $40 billion to $70 billion in investment at full development, up to 190,000 direct jobs, and $200 billion in exports. Negotiations run through this year, planning in 2027, construction starting in 2028.
UNCERTAIN
BCDA President Jake Bingcang said the figures are based on scientific study, but full development depends on negotiations that haven’t concluded and power and water infrastructure still being built out.
WHY IT MATTERS
Participation has expanded to more than 30 countries from fewer than 15 in April, and the project now has a concrete initial investment target of $10 billion, a shift from framework talk to numbers the government is willing to put its name on.
OPPORTUNITY
A 1,620-hectare hub integrating semiconductors, AI computing, and critical minerals processing means early positioning matters for suppliers, contractors, and talent pipelines.
NEXT MOVE
Founders in engineering, construction, logistics, or tech talent development should start tracking Pax Silica’s 2026 negotiation phase now. The companies positioned early tend to win the first contracts when construction actually starts.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Car sales are down, but the EV numbers say something different
Vehicle sales fell 8% in June and are down double digits for the first half, according to CAMPI and TMA data reported by BusinessWorld. At the same time, EV sales more than doubled, with plug-in hybrids up nearly 40-fold from a year ago. Read together, this isn’t a story of Filipino consumers pulling back across the board. It’s a shift: the segment weighed down by high borrowing costs and caution is shrinking, while a specific, newer segment is growing fast enough to stand out inside a down market.
Founders selling big-ticket goods should treat this as a signal to look at where the growth actually is instead of reading the headline number and assuming demand is uniformly weak. The households still buying are buying differently, and that’s worth building toward now, before the rest of the market catches up.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Know your exemptions before you absorb the cost
Wilson Lee Flores has kept pandesal affordable at his 87-year-old Kamuning Bakery through inflation spikes, supply disruptions, and surging electricity bills. As the NCR wage hike lands today, BusinessWorld reports he’s leaning on cross-training staff and cutting waste rather than raising prices. That’s the instinct most owners reach for first, and it’s a reasonable one. But it’s not the only lever available.
Buried in the same coverage is a detail worth more attention than it gets: Barangay Micro Business Enterprises can apply for exemption from the wage order entirely under the BMBE Act, and IBON Foundation’s own numbers show labor costs average just 11% of total business costs nationwide. That’s the real lesson here. The founders who come out ahead aren’t always the ones who absorb every new cost through sheer operational discipline. They’re the ones who check what relief the system already offers before assuming they have to carry the full weight themselves. If you haven’t looked into your BMBE eligibility or your wage board exemption options, that’s worth ten minutes before you touch your pricing.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
$70 Billion is government finally putting a number on Pax Silica
BCDA has talked about Pax Silica in broad strokes for months. This week it put out actual figures: up to $70 billion in investment at full development, up to 190,000 direct jobs, $200 billion in exports, and a concrete $10 billion initial investment target. Nothing is signed yet, and BCDA President Jake Bingcang was upfront that negotiations run through this year before planning starts in 2027 and construction in 2028, so treat this as a formal projection, not a done deal.
But the shift from talk to numbers matters on its own, especially with participation now expanded to more than 30 countries from fewer than 15 back in April. It lands the same week vehicle sales are down double digits, and the budget deficit widened again, a reminder that near-term consumer demand and long-run infrastructure ambition are two different stories running in parallel, not one story contradicting the other. If you’re in engineering, construction, semiconductors, or tech talent, this is the kind of project that resets what winning early positioning looks like, well before the first contract gets signed in New Clark City.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
