Philippines Increasingly Faces Month-Long Dry Days This April

More regions nationwide risk facing up to an entire month of dry days this April amidst continuing onslaught of the drought-driving El Nino phenomenon during the prevailing dry season that’s expected to peak then.

Number of dry days this April that can range from 15 days to 31 days in Regions I, III and V, as well as Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), show latest available data from State-run Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

PAGASA also forecast 26 to 31 days elsewhere in the country next month except for Region II (Cagayan Valley) of 21 to 25 dry days.

“We expect seeing next month more dry days than usual,” said PAGASA senior weather specialist Analiza Solis.

She noted El Nino’s impact on the prevailing dry season elevated PAGASA’s April 2016 dry day forecast to above-average numbers.

According to the weather bureau, dry day is a day with rainfall 1.0 mm or less.

“Such means even if there’s 0.80 mm of rain, it’s still a dry day,” said Solis.

Earlier, PAGASA forecast 25 to 31 dry days this March in each of Metro Manila, CAR as well as regions I, II, III, IV-A and IV-B all in Luzon.

It forecast the same number of dry days this month in Southern Philippines’ Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

The April 2016 dry day forecast of PAGASA for Region II is lower than for other regions as Solis noted thunderstorms bringing rainfall exceeding 1.0 mm are possible in that valley towards the end of nextmonth.

Region II is experiencing hot weather and water there that evaporated will eventually condense and form into clouds then fall as rain, she said.

Some 38 percent of the country or about 30 provinces will likely experience drought by April’s end, warned PAGASA.

It also warned of way below-normal rainfall next month in Luzon and the Visayas with precipitation possibly reaching only 23.9 percent and 18.4 percent of normal levels there, respectively.

Mindanao can experience below-normal rainfall this April when precipitation there is forecast at only 43.7 percent of this area’s normal level, PAGASA continued.

“April is the dry season’s peak so there’s less rain and higher temperature during that month,” said Anthony Lucero, OIC of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

PAGASA expects less of the country to experience month-long dry days this May, however.

The rain-driving southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’ will likely be prevailing by then, it said.

Lucero said El Nino is already in its decaying stage so transition to neutral conditions are possible during the May-June-July 2016 period.

“Conditions will most probably be neutral already by July’s end,” he added. (PNA) LGI/CJT/EDS