PAGASA Releases Sixth El Niño Advisory

(PNA) – Moderate El Niño conditions continue to persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, State weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its sixth El Niño advisory released on Monday.

Leading climate models suggest that it may intensify from moderate to strong El Niño in the coming months (last quarter of 2015) and may last until early 2016, PAGASA noted.

Weather systems that affected the country in July were the ridge of high pressure area, inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), southwest (SW) monsoon, low-pressure areas (LPAs) and passage of three tropical cyclones (TCs)over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR): tropical storm Egay (July 2-7) as well as typhoons Falcon (July 8-10) and Goring (July 23-25).

All these TCs enhanced the SW monsoon and brought moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms over most sections of the country, resulting in landslides and flooding based on reports of the National Disaster RiskReduction and Management Council.

Weather systems likely to affect the country in August are the SW monsoon, ITCZ, LPAs, monsoon trough and occurrence of two to four TCs in PAR.

Rainfall distribution is expected to be near-normal in most parts of the country while below-normal rainfall is predicted over the provinces of Palawan, Camarines Norte, Guimaras, Negros Island region, Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Region XII and ARMM (Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) except Cotabato and Lanao del Sur.

Above-normal rainfall is likely in Samar and Misamis Oriental provinces.

The provinces of Cagayan and Isabela will likely experience drought/dry spell while 11 provinces affected by drought/dry spell are likely to improve: Aurora,Camiguin, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Misamis Oriental,Occidental Mindoro, Quezon, Quirino and Siquijor.

However, Bohol and Camarines Norte are likely to experience drought condition.

Surface air temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal in most parts of the country.

Predicted average range of temperature will be 13°C to 27°C over mountainous areas of Luzon, 19°C to 37°C for the rest of Luzon, 22°C to 36°C over the Visayas, 15°C to 33°C over mountainous areas of Mindanao and 17°C to 37°C for the rest of Mindanao.

Analysis of rainfall distribution for July showed near- to above-normal rainfall were observed over the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, Romblon, Albay, Palawan, Negros Island Region, southern section of Cebu, Western and Central Mindanao.

The rest of the country experienced below- to way below-normal rainfall conditions, especially the eastern section of the Philippines which is a clear manifestation of El Niño’s impacts on the country.

Further analysis showed the provinces of Aurora, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro and Quirino were affected by dry spell.

Dry spell is described as three consecutive months of below-normal (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions or two consecutive months of way below-normal (more than 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions.

On the other hand, provinces affected by drought are: Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Quezon and Siquijor.

Drought is defined as three consecutive months of way below-normal (more than 60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below-normal (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall condition.

Slightly warmer-than-average air temperatures were generally observed over most parts of the country during July except for slightly cooler than average air temperatures over mountainous areas of Luzon.

Average range of temperature recorded in the country were 24°C to 33°C over lowlands of Luzon, 16°C to 21°C for mountainous areas of Luzon, 24°C to 33°C for the Visayas, 23°C to 34°C over lowlands of Mindanao and 19°C to 29°C over mountainous areas of Mindanao.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the ongoing moderate El Niño condition. (PNA) SCS/PR/CJT/SSC