‘Noul’ Recurve Likely: PAGASA

Manila (PNA) — The Philippines can still be spared from possible onslaught of storm “Noul” east of the country at present.

Forecaster Fernando Cada from government’s weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised such possibility, noting latest output from most of this agency’s models don’t support a landfall scenario for “Noul.”

“The models instead indicate ‘Noul’ will recurve and head northwards as it nears the eastern portion of Luzon and the Visayas,” he said.

He noted such projected movement echoes consolidated average findings drawn from data since 1948 on tropical cyclone tracks in the country.

“Such data show there are more recurves at this time of the year,” he said.

Only one of PAGASA’s forecasting models indicates “Noul” will likely landfall in the eastern Luzon-Visayas area then cross northern Luzon, he continued.

In its 5 a.m. 24-hour public weather forecast released on Monday (May 4), PAGASA located “Noul” at some 1,555 kilometers east of Mindanao as of 4 a.m. of the same day.

“We expect ‘Noul’ to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this Thursday,” Cada said.

PAGASA will adapt the local name “Dodong” for the storm once this weather system enters PAR, he said.

“Noul” packed maximum winds of 65 kilometers per hour near its center and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour, PAGASA further said in its forecast.

The storm is expected to move west-northwest at nine kilometers per hour, according to PAGASA.

Cada said the easterly wind prevailing in the country at present and other factors will influence future track and strength of “Noul.”

“If the easterlies intensify, ‘Noul’ can possibly weaken,” he said.

He noted since “Noul” is still over Pacific waters, it’s also possible for this storm to intensify.

Last week, PAGASA said it expects zero to one tropical cyclone in the country this May. (PNA) FFC/CJT/EBP