LPA’s Intensification Looms — PAGASA

The low-pressure area (LPA) off Cagayan province at present will likely intensify into a tropical cyclone (TC) around Friday (Aug. 12), further enhancing the rain-driving southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’ affecting Luzon.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar based such forecast on latest available data indicating the LPA’s possible development into a TC by then.

“We expect such development to enhance ‘habagat’ anew so rains in Luzon will likely reintensify this weekend until Monday (Aug. 15),” she said.

She urged communities concerned to prepare accordingly, noting the expected “habagat” rains can trigger flooding and landslides.

In its 5 a.m forecast released on Tuesday (Aug. 9), PAGASA located the LPA at around 1,200 kilometers east of Cagayan’s Aparri municipality as of 4 a.m. of the same day.

Earlier, PAGASA saw “low chance” for the LPA to intensify into a TC as this agency said atmospheric conditions then were not favorable for such development.

Escullar previously said rains in Luzon can vary from moderate to occasionally heavy in the next two to three days due to the LPA’s enhancement of ‘habagat.’

Previous forecast also indicated such rains in Luzon can ease by Friday or Saturday (Aug. 13) and range from light to moderate only as she noted the LPA can already either dissipate or further move away from the country then, lessening its enhancement of ‘habagat.’

Fresh data on the LPA’s possible intensification led State weather agency forecasters to revise their rainfall forecast for Luzon, however.

According to Escullar, PAGASA’s latest forecast rainfall for Luzon already ranges from moderate to occasionally heavy until Wednesday (Aug. 10), then moderate on Thursday (Aug. 11) and Friday before reintensifying this weekend until Monday.

“We forecast enhancement of ‘habagat’ again due to the LPA’s expected development,” she said.

The LPA might intensify into a TC either shortly before or immediately after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), she noted.

“That LPA can become a tropical depression and even evolve into a storm,” she said.

According to PAGASA, tropical depressions and storms are among TCs in the country. (PNA) SCS/CJT/EDS