‘Goni’ Landfall Scenario Looms

(PNA) — Government isn’t discounting the possibility that the tropical cyclone (TC) with international name ‘Goni’ might not only intensify further while moving over Pacific waters but even change course and head towards extreme northern Luzon, landfalling there.

“If the high-pressure area up north remains, it’ll prevent ‘Goni’ from continuing its west-northwest track and force this TC to veer towards extreme northern Luzon instead,” said forecaster Jori Loiz from State weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

He noted such possible change in direction of ‘Goni’ opens up the likelihood of a landfall scenario for this TC.

Loiz said data as of 5 a.m. Monday (Aug. 17) located ‘Goni’ at 2,150 kilometers east of Central Luzon and still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Data showed ‘Goni’ moving west-northwestwards then at a faster 20 kilometers per hour, he noted.

If such movement continues, he said ‘Goni’ will enter PAR on Tuesday (Aug. 18) instead of Wednesday as PAGASA forecast earlier.

Once inside PAR, PAGASA will refer to ‘Goni’ as ‘Ineng.’

‘Ineng’ will be the country’s ninth TC this year.

‘Goni’ is among two TCs in the Pacific at present.

Following ‘Goni’ is TC ‘Atsani’ which is farther from thePhilippines, noted PAGASA.

Last week, PAGASA forecast ‘Goni’ to enhance the southwest monsoon or ‘habagat’ as this TC nears the Philippines.

PAGASA noted such enhanced ‘habagat’ will likely bring light to heavy rain in Mindanao this week.

Loiz said data show ‘Goni’ already intensified into a typhoon packing as of 5 a.m. Monday maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour near its center and gustiness of up to 160 kilometers per hour.

“We’re not yet expecting ‘Goni’ to intensify into a super typhoon,” he said, citing latest available data as basis for such forecast.

He clarified PAGASA is still open to the possibility ‘Goni’ can intensify into a super typhoon, however.

Under PAGASA’s updated TC classification, super typhoon is a TC packing winds exceeding 220 kilometers per hour.

PAGASA expects heavy to very heavy damage in areas that’ll directly experience such winds.

Storm surges two to three meters high and waves towering more than 14 meters are also possible in coastal communities in and sea waters off such areas, added PAGASA. (PNA) CTB/CJT