Drought, Dry Spell Likely Till December

(PNA) — The Philippines could be in for a long, dry haul this year.

According to State weather agency Philippine Atmospheric,Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the country is facing up to six straight months of drought and a maximum four consecutive months of dry spell during 2015’s second semester after experiencing scorching heat earlier this year.

“Such forecast will most likely come true,” said PAGASA senior weather specialist Anthony Lucero.

He noted rainfall reduction in some areas can exceed 60 percent.

Latest data indicate the drought-driving El Niño phenomenon that’s already in progress can possibly further intensify this year from “moderate” to “strong” and persist until early 2016, Lucero said.

Such intensification will likely approximate the 1997-1998 El Niño that ravaged the country, he noted.

He said El Niño’s development at present is already comparable to its 1997-1998 counterpart.

Experts already identified the 1997-1998 El Niño as the strongest of its kind to affect the country during the 20th century.

Data from PAGASA this week indicate neither drought nor dry spell will affect several provinces during the second semester of 2015.

Those provinces are Batanes in Luzon and Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Davao Oriental, Surigao del Sur and Lanao del Sur all in Mindanao.

Citing results of its rainfall analysis, however, PAGASA said provinces facing six straight months of drought from July to December this year are the Visayas’ Leyte and Southern Leyte as well as Mindanao’s South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao and Sulu.

The agency also forecast five months of drought from August to December this year in Luzon’s Isabela and Camarines Norte provinces as well as the Visayas’ Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu and Biliran provinces.

Four months of drought from September to December is forecast for Luzon’s Aurora, Batangas, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro and Romblon provinces and the Visayas’ Aklan, Antique, Capiz and Iloilo provinces, PAGASA continued.

PAGASA likewise expects three-month drought from October to December in Metro Manila and Luzon’s Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Cavite and Laguna provinces.

Over 60 percent reduction from average rainfall can be expected in drought-stricken areas, said PAGASA.

Lucero urged the public to conserve water and prepare for the dry months ahead.

“Our forecast rainfall towards the year’s end doesn’t look good particularly for the Visayas and Mindanao,” he said.

Bolstering such forecast is below-normal rainfall already occurring in various areas of the country, he noted.

PAGASA further said provinces under threat from four consecutive months of dry spell beginning September 2015 are Luzon’s Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate and Sorsogon provinces; the Visayas’ Siquijor, Northern Samar and Western Samar provinces and Mindanao’s Bukidnon, Compostela Valley, Davao, Davao del Sur and Cotabato provinces.

Three straight months of dry spell from October to December 2015 will likely hit Luzon’s entire Cordillera Administrative Region and the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Zambales, Rizal, Palawan and Albay; the Visayas’ Eastern Samar province as well as Mindanao’s Zamboanga del Norte,Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Misamis Occidental provinces, PAGASA also said.

For 2015, PAGASA likewise expects the dry spell in Bohol province from July to September and in Surigao del Norte from September to November.

Between 21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average rainfall can be expected in areas under the dry spell, said PAGASA.

PAGASA noted drought and the dry spell already affected over 30 provinces nationwide this year.

“It’s good the rainy season commenced so we expect conditions to slightly improve,” said Lucero.

He said people must take advantage of the rainy season and save water as this wet period will prevail until around September only.

“We expect the country to experience a long, dry period afterwards,” he said.

Earlier this week, PAGASA announced onset of the country’s rainy season this year after rainfall data from its stations warranted this action.

Intermittent to continuous rains and thunderstorms associated with southwest wind flow will affect Metro Manila and other areas in the country’s western portion, PAGASA also said.

Despite El Niño, PAGASA forecast an average 11 to 16 tropical cyclones (TCs) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the June-December 2015 period.

Of such number, Lucero said PAGASA expects one TC this month, three to five TCs in July, two to four TCs in each of August and September, two to three TCs in October, one to two TCs in November and zero to one TC in December.

PAGASA said occurrence of El Niño doesn’t reduce number of TCs expected in the country.

El Niño affects TCs’ intensity and direction, however, PAGASA clarified.

“Very strong” TCs are possible later this year, noted PAGASA.

TCs during El Niño tend to recurve northwards instead of crossing the country, PAGASA added. (PNA) CTB/CJT/EDS